2008 U.S. Presidential Elections Synopsis Part 2

The 2008 U.S. election proved that a new dawn for politics has arrived. We now have seen the power of web 2.0 and how it can shape a political landscape. We also saw how the Millenials are engaged. How did this all happen? The answer is two words: MARKETING and MONEY. The rule of the game (anywhere) is the one with the bigger war chest, wins. But there is something else about this election that was also not seen in a long time: STRONG MEDIA BIAS.

We can go on and on (which I will because there will be other things I will be ranting about this election), but for the sake of this page, I can safely say that Obama won because he vastly outspent McCain. Even Chris Cilizza of Washington Post (one of the newspapers who endorsed Obama) agrees with many of us who observed the political circus. 

According to Nielsen Company, from June through November, Obama ran 419,667 ads in local markets while McCain ran 269,992 ads — a difference of nearly 150,000 ads. In the final month of the election, the ad difference was even greater with Obama’s campaign running 210,425 local ads as compared to just more than 97,000 for McCain. Obama also had one-and-a-half times as many spot TV ads than John McCain during the general election season (6/08 to 11/08), double when he started running ads in January during the Primaries.

SPOT TV ADS: June-Nov 2008

Barack Obama	419,667
John McCain	269,992

 

Local Ad Spending by Both McCain and Obama

Other notable campaign facts from Nielsen’s research

• Obama’s ads were on the airwaves over twice as much as McCain’s in the final month before the election (210,245 vs. 97,023 ad buys).
• McCain took early advantage of Obama’s long primary battle with Hillary Clinton, which ended on June 3rd. McCain bought over three and a half times more spot TV ads than Obama in June (26,594 to 7,251), the only month that McCain beat his opponent in that category.
• McCain made a major push with national buys in September, out placing Obama 10 to 1 in cable and network ad buys.
• The two candidates alone combined for almost 850,000 total ad buys dating back to January.

 

Here are some statistics presented by ISU Statistical Graphics Working Group: 

 

Daily Tracking versus Actual Popular Vote From ISU Statistical Graphics Working Group

This figure show results of the daily tracking polls, and the actual popular vote (blue). Main pollsters are colored, so that relative bias can be seen. The trend line is a less smooth through all points. 

 

State tracking results from ISU Statistical Graphics Working Group

The result for each state (blue, red) and polls for each state over the week leading up to the election are shown as a dot plot. From top to bottom, the order of the states is from most Republican to most Democratic.

Median is represented as a black dot, all polls as large white dots, and median of last week’s as a grey dot. Vertical lines mark 5% points difference. 

 

Obama tracking results from ISU Statistical Graphics Working Group

 

McCain tracker from ISU Statistical Graphics Working Group

These figures show the daily tracking results separately for Obama and McCain, and the actual result. Tracking polls low-balled the McCain %.

So, how fair was U.S. Elections this time compared to the 2000 or 2004?

Lesson learned here is that politics still truly local and money greases the machines. It is a dirty world we live and work in.

2008 U.S. Presidential Elections Synopsis Part 1

Fourty-eight days to January 20, 2009, before the spectacular fanfare of the historic 44th United States Presidential Inauguration, when an African-American takes center-stage and recite the oath on first entering office specified in Article II, Section 1, of the U.S. Constitution:

“I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect,  and defend the Constitution of the United States.”

The theme for the 2009 inauguration of Barack Obama is “A New Birth of Freedom,” which honors the bicentennial of Abraham Lincoln’s birth. People scrambling to get the hottest “non-existent” tickets in town. Yes, “non-existent” because they are not issued yet and there are scammers selling them for $1000+ already. So if you contemplate of buying them through the web, STOP IT NOW.  These tickets are FREE and you get them from any U.S. Congress and Senate Officials and usually they are only allotted with a couple of hundred tickets depending on their constituents. Some public officials have even started doing lottery to be fair. You cannot get these if you are not American constituent in that district that the particular elected official (or ask your American friends).

Washington D.C. is expecting about 1M visitors and a massive planning is taking place to keep the city in order. All this hysteria because people want to hear the man who used a Kennedy-King-Lincoln-esque platform and echoed throughout his campaign:

“I am the son of a black man from Kenya and a white woman from Kansas. I was raised with the help of a white grandfather who survived a Depression to serve in Patton’s Army during World War II and a white grandmother who worked on a bomber assembly line at Fort Leavenworth while he was overseas. I’ve gone to some of the best schools in America and lived in one of the world’s poorest nations. I am married to a black American who carries within her the blood of slaves and slaveowners – an inheritance we pass on to our two precious daughters. I have brothers, sisters, nieces, nephews, uncles and cousins, of every race and every hue, scattered across three continents, and for as long as I live, I will never forget that in no other country on Earth is my story even possible.” Excerpt from A More Perfect Union

 

Electoral Vote tally

We sat with astonishment to the meteoric rise of this obscured Arab-cheered Messiah 46-year-old political virgin to become the first African-American to capture DNC nomination. (Thanks to the Iowa Caucus and Obama´s brilliant grassroots strategy through David Axelrod´s brainchild, he surprisingly rose above Clinton) Weeks later, he wins an overwhelming mandate of 365 Electoral votes versus the 173 that McCain  got.  World Leaders like Merkel, Sarcozy, Brown (pro-Americans to Obama´s advantage) reacted warmly and  with expectations,  tests and warnings. 

2008 U.S. Presidential Elections County by County Results

The 2008 U.S. Elections cracked a lot of ceilings. Both GOP and DNC parties made historical marks with their two women, Sen. Hillary Clinton (NY) and Gov. Sarah Palin (AL). The former proving to be a formidable candidate with 18M behind her and the latter, a female maverick that became GOP´s first female for top ticket. Then you have the massive money that got poured in through Obama´s internet fundraising, garnering aroung $650M in total which afforded him to release a 30 minute infomercial in all major networks. 

The RESULT: The longest, historic, exciting, most expensive U.S. Election ever!

Facebook Disabled my Account without Warning

Last Friday, I posted a note called The Gospel of Obama (I shall post it here too so you know what I am talking about) and like most notes that I post there, I got quite a lot of hits from my circa 2000 friends. I have recently used my Facebook account to facilitate intellectual debates about everything under the sun and welcomed all sorts of ideas from people. I am shock to find out the next day that the company disabled my account. I have been a FB account holder since 2004-2005-ish and this is the first time that I have experienced this. The only thing I could think of is the fact that there are people who do not agree with my views that petitioned I be removed. 

I understand that politics is personal, but I find it stupid that people cannot handle hearing other people´s opinions. Since when are we allowed to really pass judgment on people based on the fact they are different. Well, forgive me that I am not like you. I take pride in the fact that I do not think like most people. I like to form my own opinions.

Someone even called me “offshore terrorist” or “Arab lover” because I read Al Jazeera. I happen to like reading and watching news from all sources like ABC, CNN, BBC, Al Jazeera, The Economist, TIME, Fox, The Washington Post, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg to name a few. Why would that classify me as a terrorist just because I want to read all sources and learn from everyone. 

A VP of MTV wrote me on Facebook once that he detest my views and considered me stupid because I liked McCain-Palin or even the conservative platform.

I happen to be moderate independent with Conservative leanings like on fiscal policy, but I am moderate in social views. Why does it matter anyway? Why can a minority woman like me not have a political opinion in peace? I let people with differing views argue with me and I only moderate when profanity is used and do personal attacks that does not add to the discussion. 

Anyway, for a company who lobbyied and marketed to politicians in Washington D.C. to use their site, I find it very odd they would do such a thing.